RCS Success On the Horizon?

Over the last few years we have seen a number of bullish forecasts for RCS success. Recently, this has changed somewhat, as a new report from Infonetics reveals.

The mood seems finally realistic, although the numbers are promising – after all, an additional $1.6 billion in revenue isn’t to be sneezed at. And, let’s not forget we are starting from a subscriber base of – well, next to nothing. So if we can achieve 15 million users by 2013, that’s great progress.

But I’m not sure the numbers tell the whole story. We know several operators are taking active steps to launch RCS. We also know many more are considering what to do. But RCS is more than simply another messaging platform.

With the recent spread of alternative OTT platforms, it’s easy to overlook the fact that RCS is a native messaging solution that offers much more than simple messaging. File sharing, IM, presence, a secure address book. There’s a lot more to it than another messaging platform. As the GSMA says, “it’s just there, it just works”.

I think that the numbers are realistic, but I also think that growth beyond 2013 will be dramatic. As the number of devices that support RCS and offer a native version grows so too will user adoption. Maybe it’s right to be conservative in the near-term, but once the services have been launched, there will be room for much greater optimism. The industry really seems poised at this point: but it won’t take much for the predictions to be exceeded.

-- Brent